Automotive powertrains and PGM demand
Bespoke research
Forecasting the evolving autocatalyst metal mix
Over two decades, SFA (Oxford) has developed an unrivalled model of metal demand in the automotive sector, using automakers’ production forecasts, powertrain evolution in response to legislation, the latest emissions standards and an in-depth understanding of autocatalyst technologies. Covering all classes of vehicles – light-duty, heavy-duty and non-road – and all regions, our view is trusted by automakers and autocatalyst fabricators, as well as metal producers, recyclers and investors.
A watching brief on all automotive developments
SFA provides analysis of global emissions standards and trends affecting gasoline- and diesel-powered internal combustion engines and the long-term electrification of transport, including hybrids, battery electric vehicles and fuel cell powertrains.
Regional and local mandates to avert global warming and improve urban air quality are driving the transition to cleaner vehicles, over a long period and at varying rates in different countries.
SFA’s analysis helps to track the ongoing demand for PGMs in autocatalysts for internal combustion engines, while also highlighting the battery metals requirements in electrified vehicles, and considering the future for PGMs for the long term in fuel cell vehicles and in the production of hydrogen fuel.
Whilst autocatalysts are the largest market, we also consider the trends affecting the use of PGMs in spark plugs for gasoline vehicles, and the role of PGMs as the electronic hardware content of vehicles increases, with sensors and control systems to ensure efficient and safe operation of all powertrains.
Case studies
A long-term sensitivity analysis of future automotive technology and its impact on the PGM market out to 2040 — commissioned by a major metal trading company
Where and when the expansions and contractions in demand will take place for each metal
An analysis was carried out of the influence of future powertrains, with a breakdown of the projected powertrain shares (across gasoline, diesel, battery-electric, fuel cell electric, and hybrid vehicles) and production by region out to 2040. In addition, the associated long-term demand outlook out to 2040 for platinum, palladium, and rhodium was assessed.
Technological and legislative developments — commissioned by a major PGM producer
Industry watching brief
SFA (Oxford) undertook a watching brief on all technological and legislative developments affecting PGM demand in autocatalyst end-uses.
Security of supply — commissioned by a major car manufacturer
Security of PGM supply against new automotive technologies and product cycles
The review considered a car company’s future drive towards new automotive technologies where sourcing the right materials to meet the new challenges arising from the need for more environmentally friendly vehicles is a key factor. Catalysis will invariably require greater levels of palladium so as to maximise performance in this new wave of vehicles and, as such, supply will need to be assured in order to sustain the future of this emerging market.
Automotive catalyst end-uses — commissioned by a major mining corporation
Autocatalyst demand study
The team at SFA (Oxford) carried out an overview of automotive catalyst end-uses, including PGM requirements, industry trends, emissions legislation and inter-related metal substitution. We also produced historical autocatalyst PGM offtake data and forecast demand.
The impact of electric vehicles on future platinum and palladium demand — commissioned by a major conglomerate
Long-term market impact analysis out to 2040
An evaluation of potential powertrain technology uptake trends out to 2040 including combustion engine evolution, hybrids, electric drive and fuel cells. The project also took account of country-by-country energy supplies, government policies and legislation, cities, and demographic considerations. In summary, using a range of electric vehicle sales growth scenarios to articulate the potential loss of PGM demand to the client.
Strategic metals assessment to support tomorrow’s hydrogen economy — commissioned by a consortium of technological leaders
Hydrogen market assessment
SFA (Oxford) provided a detailed report and presentation to a consortium of fuel cell technology companies, major automakers, gas companies, technology companies, and third-party manufacturers on the long-term viability of platinum and iridium supplies to support a budding hydrogen economy.
Let's discuss your bespoke automotive market research project
Contact one of our team for more details.
Henk de Hoop
Chief Executive Officer
Beresford Clarke
Managing Director: Technical & Research
Jamie Underwood
Principal Consultant
Other PGM consulting solutions
Explore other services our clients use regularly.
Macroeconomics and precious metals
For many years, SFA's extensive expertise in analysing the changing dynamics of global economies, financial markets and precious metals has enabled us to deliver bespoke research to enhance your next strategy.
The future of cities and mobility solutions
SFA has advised mobility companies with their strategies, providing global or local industry context, benchmarking competitors, creating industry scenarios and identifying new opportunities.
PGM purchasing and new customer targets
SFA has explored the purchasing dynamics between market participants, the complexity of the associated price web factors for platinum, palladium and rhodium, providing definitive answers to commercial questions.
Emerging technologies – opportunities and threats
SFA is constantly monitoring the evolution of emerging technologies and threats to new metal substitution. Let us cut through the noise, and highlight the short to long-term price risk impacts for your business.
PGM catalyst and chemicals market intelligence
SFA is equipped to provide detailed regional insights of the major players, market shares, demand volumes, and market value for automotive, chemical and petrochemical catalysts, and smaller industrial markets.
Long-term PGM recycling value chain assessments
SFA's discreet work with recyclers gives us unique market insights, for the major regions of the USA, Europe, China and Japan. We also closely monitor jewellery recycling, electronic scrap and spent catalysts.
Jewellery pipeline mapping and econometrics
SFA has mapped jewellery pipelines, examined costs and margins, quantified future demand levels, and analysed the competitor landscape of fabricators, wholesalers, and retailers for future investment decision-making.
PGM trade flows and stock reconciliation
SFA analyses the physical movements of PGMs for demand-side and supply-side participants, how futures contracts are priced and traded, and quantifies above-ground PGM stocks from key sectors.
Closed and open-loop PGM market evaluation
SFA can provide you with the most insightful 360-degree research covering the secret closed-loop market sectors by quantifying installed capacities, system losses and top-up requirements by company and sector.
Formulating regional trading desk strategies
SFA has significant experience mapping regional and localised end-use markets for PGMs to assist clients in discovering new trading opportunities and client targets by volume and sector.
Augmented mine business planning and risk analysis
SFA has significant experience in reviewing mine business plans, identifying production risks and reviewing costs down to a half-level basis.
Due diligence studies and PGM commercial advisory
Working with clients and third parties, SFA has a long track record of providing technical due diligence and financial modelling support to help secure funding.
PGM mergers, acquisitions, and corporate defence
Clients have used SFA to provide the analytical link with banks and financial institutions to support PGM investment decision-making and provide market support.
IPO market chapters and PGM feasibility studies
SFA has supported numerous client listings by providing an independent view of the PGM markets to help secure capital from potential investors.
Peer-group benchmarking and margin analysis
Our PGM peer-group benchmarking is unrivalled, providing you with a detailed understanding of which assets are outperforming and which are most at risk.
Mine optimisation and cost benchmarking
SFA realises cost synergies for PGM clients across company operations to help raise margins and improve production efficiency benchmarks.
Human capital and organisational planning
The SFA team has completed many labour workforce projects, analysing demographic trends, forecasting future labour requirements across mining operations.
Covid-19 PGM market analysis and scenarios
With extensive experience covering the PGM markets and industry fundamentals, SFA can provide you with our latest market outlook and the window of scenarios.
PGM strategy, planning and Board support
SFA is a trusted advisor to Board members and senior management of significant stakeholders and provides regular assistance to strategy and planning efforts.
PGM price forecasting and project incentive pricing
SFA can provide accurate short-, medium- and long-term PGM price forecasts to support your business plans and contract negotiations.
PGM markets and supply risk dashboards
SFA provides regular data flows of mine supply and metallurgical pipelines, basket prices, mine economics, and PGM demand to assist strategic decision-making.
Metallurgical processing and commercial options
SFA has extensive experience in assessing clients' advanced mineral processing offtake options and evaluating indicative commercial terms.
'Black-box' PGM and macro scenario modelling
Clients approach SFA to run their own supply and macro modelling demand inputs to see the impact this has on the medium- to long-term PGM market balances.
PGM investor Board packs and roadshows
SFA supports its clients on global roadshows to assist on capital raisings and converse with fund managers, institutional investors and family wealth officers.
Black swan events and PGM market impacts
The SFA team is constantly providing rich insights for its clients on structural events moving the PGM markets, particularly when the situation continues to change.
Corporate ESG strategy and PGM stewardship
SFA works closely with value chain players to understand how materially significant ESG issues can be integrated into their wider company strategy.
Peer-group ESG benchmarking for PGMs
SFA's benchmarking of PGM producers on material ESG factors generates high-resolution insights for sustainability-conscious investors.
Cradle-to-grave ESG recycling studies
SFA's analysis of environmental footprints from recycled material in terms of greenhouse gases, waste generation and processing is helping secure new investments.
How can we help you?
SFA (Oxford) provides bespoke, independent intelligence on the strategic metal markets, specifically tailored to your needs. To find out more about what we can offer you, please contact us.