19 October 2022

Joining the dots to 2040

Available now, this unique report is an in-depth, forward-looking analysis of the current and long-term trends and influences acting on the global PGM markets to 2040.

As we come out of Covid, many more variables are considered in this year’s 2040 study including an energy crisis in Europe; inflationary pressures for manufacturers, consumers and mining companies; supply security concerns; new electric vehicle model launches and the inflationary reduction act in the USA; and the uptake of hydrogen and fuel cells.

The increasing cost of mining PGMs and the possibility of PGM prices coming off recent highs could pressurise certain high-cost operations and limit the commercialisation of new operations.

Over the medium term, the uptake of platinum-loaded fuel cells is likely to lift platinum prices significantly. How much might platinum prices have to rise to offset potentially lower palladium and rhodium prices (as well as mine cost inflation), to motivate new supply?

What happens to rhodium if battery electric vehicle uptake falls short of current forecasts?

SFA (Oxford)’s 2040 report considers all these moving parts, to include a central case and a range of realistic scenarios. 

Key features include:

• Realistic scenario outcomes on supply and demand variables to understand potential price direction for PGMs.

• An analysis of global demand trends on a regional basis.

• Long-term sensitivity analysis of automotive technology & implications for PGM use.

• Robust, economically derived, PGM price forecasts.

• Security of supply concerns addressed by region, existing mines and tomorrow’s replacement/expansion projects.

• An assessment of the future potential volumes of recycling.

Please contact us to secure your copy so we can help augment your strategic thinking.

Beresford Clarke

Managing Director: Technical & Research
SFA (Oxford)