Market outlook for lithium

SFA's long-term lithium market report provides you with a competitive edge. Our bespoke study examines, on a deep-dive basis, the changing nature of the lithium market and metal prices out to 2040 from the likely effects of automotive and battery technological advances and challenges.

The far-reaching forecast provides price direction and market trends to 2040, covering:

Lithium supply, demand impacts and new market threats:

• Over 500 supply projects individually assessed and mapped (80 advanced) to determine future lithium supply, including major new entrants.

• Weighing up shortfall or oversupply risks and the potential price impacts.

• Examination of traditional and unconventional deposits: their location, composition, and impact on near and long-term supply pressures.

• Includes 10 cost curves (current and 2030F) and incentive prices for 50 advanced projects, split by deposit type and region.

• Future BEV and EV penetration and production forecasts for each key region (China, USA, Europe, Japan, India, RoW), and the impact on lithium demand.

• Step change in energy storage requirements and new long-term LiB demand projections.

• Covers the impact of major industry and geopolitical announcements, and shifting macroeconomic trends and risks.

• Detailed impact of powertrain technology trends, specifically EV forecast risks including global powertrain evolution & electrification, automaker announcements and implications for commodities, China’s policies and the new energy vehicle market, and US market risks.

• Long-term battery technology shifts and EV powertrain developments and their impact on lithium demand.

• A full review of lithium used in lithium-ion batteries, including the growing popularity of LFP, NMC and NCA battery cathode chemistries.

• Demand sensitivity analysis and risks including the threat of substitution in key end-uses.

• Battery developments, costs, manufacturers and plant expansions.

• An evaluation of battery factory capacity development, being the key link to lithium suppliers, end-users and price evolution.

• BEV recycling potential by region and cathode chemistry, and risks outlined (e.g. second life, viability of LFP cathode recycling).

• Analysis of existing and potential end-uses including consumer electronics demand, glass/ceramics and other non-battery end-use evolution.

• Supporting demand data to 2040 on lithium demand by end-use and lithium EV demand by region.

• Insight into non-lithium alternatives for energy storage.

Price forecasts and market scenarios:

• The report concludes with a range of lithium supply-demand outlooks and price forecasts out to 2040 to highlight where potential pinch-points for the market might occur in future, including supply risks, substitution and recycling potential.

Who should read this report?

• All industry stakeholders and new business entrants who need to keep abreast of the evolving influences on the lithium market and prices, including end-users, mining companies and juniors. 

• Investors and financial institutions needing to understand and quantify the risks and opportunities in the industry, future costs of production and short- to long-term lithium prices.

Live Q&A with the analysts

• Our report is supported by a video call, most often hosted through MS Teams, which is led by Beresford Clarke, along with our team of expert Battery Metals analysts, to discuss the Long-Term Lithium Market report, and address any further questions your team may have.