Battery metal price risks out to 2028

Our Q3 Battery Metals Quarterly Service highlights how recent EV market and mine supply developments affect our latest short to medium-term metal price forecasts. The lithium, nickel and cobalt prices are well down on recent levels, mines have closed and expansion plans have been put on hold. Key strategic questions are answered, such as:

• How long will the lithium, nickel and cobalt markets remain in surplus? 

• What are the triggers for price recovery?

• What is the medium-term impact of China's inventory restocking, will it be enough to lift the lithium price?

Released four times a year on a subscription basis, the Battery Metals Quarterly Service will keep you abreast of rapidly evolving developments in the lithium, nickel and cobalt markets, providing you with a competitive edge. The content of each market report will vary according to lithium, nickel and cobalt industry events and market developments. Still, it will be tailored to incorporate an individual client’s specific strategic requirements. Typically, the battery metals reports will include:

Lithium, nickel and cobalt demand impacts and new market threats:

• Macroeconomic developments on supply-demand fundamentals and technology (global, US, EU and China).

• The impact of powertrain technology trends, specifically EV forecast risks including global powertrain evolution and electrification, automaker announcements and implications for commodities, EU CO₂ targets and opportunities for EVs, hybrid technology developments, China’s policies and the new energy vehicle (NEV) market, and US market risks.

• Lithium-ion battery technology shifts and EV powertrain developments and their impact on lithium, nickel and cobalt demand.

• Future evolution of the battery raw materials supply chain and development of other industrial uses, both emerging and in decline.

• Lithium market drivers: lithium price developments, Li-ion battery-grade demand, Li-ion battery cathode chemistries, lithium carbonate vs. hydroxide, battery factory developments and industry players, and supply versus demand.

• Nickel price and nickel sulphate price developments, the evolution of lithium-ion batteries and nickel sulphate requirements, and stainless steel versus lithium-ion battery demand.

• Cobalt market demand and price developments, lithium-ion battery cathode chemistries, battery metals substitution risks and trade to China.

• Supporting demand data on:

  • Lithium demand by end-use.

  • Lithium electric vehicle demand by region.

  • Lithium-ion battery-grade lithium hydroxide demand by region.

  • Nickel demand by end-use.

  • Nickel electric vehicle demand by region.

  • Cobalt demand by end-use.

  • Cobalt electric vehicle demand by region.

Lithium, nickel and cobalt supply and production economic impacts:

• Updates on the present and future stability and growth of primary lithium, nickel and cobalt supply, supply response, reserves and resources, factors influencing cost inflation and exchange rate and volume impacts.

• Producer economics of primary lithium (LCE), lithium hydroxide, and supply risks from hard rock and brine operations.

• Class 1 and Class 2 nickel supplies, new projects, and availability of Class 1 nickel for nickel sulphate production.

• Producer economics of nickel and nickel sulphate production.

• Producer economics of cobalt supply, supply risks, cobalt projects, politics and mining in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

• Comments on the political and socio-economic risks impacting primary supply in politically sensitive producing regions.

• Supporting supply data on:

  • Lithium supply by region, producer and operation.

  • Lithium-ion battery-grade lithium hydroxide by operation.

  • Lithium and lithium hydroxide supply from probable and possible projects.

  • Nickel supply by region, producer and operation, and from probable and possible projects.

  • Cobalt supply by region, producer and operation, and from probable and possible projects.

Price forecasts:

• Five-year price outlooks for lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, nickel, nickel sulphate and cobalt.

• 'What-if' scenario analysis and price risk assessment.

Who should read this report?

• All industry stakeholders and new business entrants who need to keep abreast of the evolving influences on the lithium, nickel and cobalt markets and prices, including end-users, mining companies and juniors. 

• Investors and financial institutions needing to understand and quantify the risks and opportunities in the industry, future costs of production and short- to medium-term prices.

Live Q&A with the analysts

• Each quarterly report is supported by a video call, most often hosted through MS Teams, which is led by Beresford Clarke, along with our team of expert Battery Metals and Materials analysts, to run through our latest powertrain metals outlook for the lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, nickel, nickel sulphate and cobalt markets, and address any further questions your team may have.

• Often additional Client project teams join SFA's special meetings to hear our latest thoughts on the Battery Metals and Materials markets.