Price Forecasting

SFA (Oxford) has a global reputation for independently assessing current and future PGM market trends in order to forecast the metal price dynamics of platinum, palladium, rhodium, ruthenium and iridium. We have provided market analysis and price forecasts to a portfolio of significant clients, including all the major producers, a number of junior PGM companies, new market entrants, mining consultants, end-users, fabricators and many leading financial institutions.

Our services are tailored to each client’s needs and include the provision of market summaries and credible metal price forecasts as part of project feasibility documentation, and for IPO listing purposes. We produce detailed, long-range yearly price forecasts for project modelling and strategic decision-making purposes. As a component of our price forecasting expertise, we can also generate sophisticated PGM price probability distribution models for the purposes of ‘Monte Carlo’ simulations.

SFA (Oxford)’s price forecasting methodology is based on the following:

  • An independent assessment of long-term supply and demand trends in platinum, palladium, rhodium, ruthenium and iridium markets out to 2025 and beyond;
  • PGM producer economics (to establish mine closure inducement pricing);
  • price flexing of NPV models for new projects and established producers (to calculate prices required to encourage new supply);
  • the economics and politics of PGM-producing regions;
  • currency rates;
  • a mathematically-derived PGM basket price cycle;
  • price risk (forecast statistical distributions of PGM prices); and
  • scenario generation and analysis.

Get in Touch

If you'd like to discuss how SFA (Oxford) can best help you through price forecasting for all of the platinum-group metal markets, please contact us.